A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the nation and caused disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
