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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a peace deal developed with US officials are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives will present the terms to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the contentious issues between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the conflict is not guaranteed, especially given Russia's absence from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president noted that the US Congress was anticipated to consider defense assurances and that a complete package of documents could be prepared “imminently.” Subsequently, the U.S. would hold consultations with Russian representatives, potentially followed by high-level meetings possibly this weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“The plan involves five documents. Several pertain to security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, voted on and endorsed by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to the press. He clarified that these assurances would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

Earlier, US officials did not provide precise information regarding the probable makeup of the security package or the consequences if Russia attempted to seize additional territory after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the U.S. does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European countries issued a joint statement that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in ensuring safer seas, potentially by conducting operations within Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of proposing these actions would serve as assurances equivalent to Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Moscow is near agreeing to the type of package being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Russian government stated it had not received the specifics of the proposals on security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that the country would not agree to troops from NATO member states operating in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts remains the territorial question. One proposal involves Kyiv ceding the parts of the Donbas region it currently controls, while Ukraine wants to freeze the lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. You know, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” Zelenskyy said following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a compromise solution. This framework would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russia would not advance, with the demilitarised area established as “a free economic zone.” Moscow has suggested it could use police and national guard formations instead of the military in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ is not controlled by Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as Russian. Absolutely,” said Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement such as a free economic zone might be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the proposals are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with precisely the situation we are experiencing on our plane right now – instability,” commented the president, making the statement as his aircraft took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with additional armaments if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the Americans,” he concluded.