Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, political struggles are waged: hopeful statements are issued from various governments. Immense energy is devoted on managing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from across the border, a ability enabled by current data. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been dispatched to engage hostile cruise missiles roared overhead – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: defensive missiles deployed against a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely provided by allied countries. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: maybe the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from ruin and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a automatic firearm engaged a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: seven people killed, devastation and heating outages in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that European nations are demonstrably unable to replace in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from US administration generated strong feelings, discussion and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from American administration follows the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, undoubtedly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame certain parties of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a premise well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government presumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from believing that the status quo will not shift further in its benefit in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding lives and land but avoiding a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not move to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to terminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new proposals based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.
