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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple pattern. It frequently acts as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your team in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the largest turnaround wins the award. In reality, it sparks an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring excellent leadership or just the most shocking surprise.

However this year's field is distinctly different. The group of contenders is exceptionally strong. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference winners declining and longtime underperformers improving together. In an typical year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in this turbulent and fun year, he's facing several other outstanding coaches.

This is how the hypothetical ballot could look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper system, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his special ability. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's sustained performance. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an attack designed solely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that creates wide receiver targets everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings weren't there, he's been able to create big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson came to Chicago with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost each gamble – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the building with the kind of hype he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a ordinary year, he would be the clear-cut choice. But this is not a normal season!

Where his candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. But he comes up short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has masterminded a dramatic resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has mastered the leadership stuff, which wasn't a guarantee following his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal staff cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, he trusted first-timers. From the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a possibility that the season would go off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the team wobbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has fallen away after that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him only one spot ahead of peers.

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